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Climate warming is increasing ocean stratification, which in turn should decrease the nutrient flux to the upper ocean. This may slow marine primary productivity, causing cascading effects throughout food webs. However, observing changes in upper ocean nutrients is challenging because surface concentrations are often below detection limits. We show that the nutricline depth, where nutrient concentrations reach well-detected levels, is tied to productivity and upper ocean nutrient availability. Next, we quantify nutricline depths from a global database of observed vertical nitrate and phosphate profiles to assess contemporary trends in global nutrient availability (1972–2022). We find strong evidence that the P-nutricline (phosphacline) is mostly deepening, especially throughout the southern hemisphere, but the N-nutricline (nitracline) remains mostly stable. Earth System Model (ESM) simulations support the hypothesis that reduced iron stress and increased nitrogen fixation buffer the nitracline, but not phosphacline, against increasing stratification. These contemporary trends are expected to continue in the coming decades, leading to increasing phosphorus but not nitrogen stress for marine phytoplankton, with important ramifications for ocean biogeochemistry and food web dynamics. 

Key Points Simulated Prochlorococcus , Synechococcus , and pico‐eukaryotes contribute ∼60% of marine net primary productivity (NPP) Pico‐phytoplankton cycling contributes half of the marine export production, approaching parity with their contribution to NPP Pico‐eukaryotes and diatoms with elevated C:P stoichiometry enhance carbon export at poleward flanks of western boundary currents 

Climate-driven depletion of ocean oxygen strongly impacts the global cycles of carbon and nutrients as well as the survival of many animal species. One of the main uncertainties in predicting changes to marine oxygen levels is the regulation of the biological respiration demand associated with the biological pump. Derived from the Redfield ratio, the molar ratio of oxygen to organic carbon consumed during respiration (i.e., the respiration quotient, $r_{-O2:C}$) is consistently assumed constant but rarely, if ever, measured. Using a prognostic Earth system model, we show that a 0.1 increase in the respiration quotient from 1.0 leads to a 2.3% decline in global oxygen, a large expansion of low-oxygen zones, additional water column denitrification of 38 Tg N/y, and the loss of fixed nitrogen and carbon production in the ocean. We then present direct chemical measurements of $r_{-O2:C}$using a Pacific Ocean meridional transect crossing all major surface biome types. The observed $r_{-O2:C}$has a positive correlation with temperature, and regional mean values differ significantly from Redfield proportions. Finally, an independent global inverse model analysis constrained with nutrients, oxygen, and carbon concentrations supports a positive temperature dependence of $r_{-O2:C}$in exported organic matter. We provide evidence against the common assumption of a static biological link between the respiration of organic carbon and the consumption of oxygen. Furthermore, the model simulations suggest that a changing respiration quotient will impact multiple biogeochemical cycles and that future warming can lead to more intense deoxygenation than previously anticipated. 

Surface ocean phosphate is commonly below the standard analytical detection limits, leading to an incomplete picture of the global variation and biogeochemical role of phosphate. A global compilation of phosphate measured using high-sensitivity methods revealed several previously unrecognized low-phosphate areas and clear regional differences. Both observational climatologies and Earth system models (ESMs) systematically overestimated surface phosphate. Furthermore, ESMs misrepresented the relationships between phosphate, phytoplankton biomass, and primary productivity. Atmospheric iron input and nitrogen fixation are known important controls on surface phosphate, but model simulations showed that differences in the iron-to-macronutrient ratio in the vertical nutrient supply and surface lateral transport are additional drivers of phosphate concentrations. Our study demonstrates the importance of accurately quantifying nutrients for understanding the regulation of ocean ecosystems and biogeochemistry now and under future climate conditions. 

Abstract Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are relied upon to make projections about the impact of climate change on marine resources and test hypotheses regarding the drivers of past changes in climate and ecosystems. In large areas of the ocean, iron availability regulates the functioning of marine ecosystems and hence the ocean carbon cycle. Accordingly, our ability to quantify the drivers and impacts of fluctuations in ocean ecosystems and carbon cycling in space and time relies on first achieving an appropriate representation of the modern marine iron cycle in models. When the iron distributions from 13 global ocean biogeochemistry models are compared against the latest oceanic sections from the GEOTRACES program, we find that all models struggle to reproduce many aspects of the observed spatial patterns. Models that reflect the emerging evidence for multiple iron sources or subtleties of its internal cycling perform much better in capturing observed features than their simpler contemporaries, particularly in the ocean interior. We show that the substantial uncertainty in the input fluxes of iron results in a very wide range of residence times across models, which has implications for the response of ecosystems and global carbon cycling to perturbations. Given this large uncertainty, iron fertilization experiments based on any single current generation model should be interpreted with caution. Improvements to how such models represent iron scavenging and also biological cycling are needed to raise confidence in their projections of global biogeochemical change in the ocean. 

Nutrient supply regulates the activity of phytoplankton, but the global biogeography of nutrient limitation and co-limitation is poorly understood.Prochlorococcusadapt to local environments by gene gains and losses, and we used genomic changes as an indicator of adaptation to nutrient stress. We collected metagenomes from all major ocean regions as part of the Global Ocean Ship-based Hydrographic Investigations Program (Bio-GO-SHIP) and quantified shifts in genes involved in nitrogen, phosphorus, and iron assimilation. We found regional transitions in stress type and severity as well as widespread co-stress.Prochlorococcusstress genes, bottle experiments, and Earth system model predictions were correlated. We propose that the biogeography of multinutrient stress is stoichiometrically linked by controls on nitrogen fixation. Our omics-based description of phytoplankton resource use provides a nuanced and highly resolved description of nutrient stress in the global ocean.